Last year I did my first “Predictions for Next Year” post. I see a lot of these kinds of posts near the end of the year. I wanted to take things a step further and look back to see how well I did.

It is, of course, difficult for any of us to be completely objective about ourselves, so to help keep me honest, I’ll spell out the scoring methodology I’m using to rate the accuracy of my predictions. Additionally, I’m explicitly soliciting feedback. If you think I’ve scored myself in any of the categories incorrectly (either too high or too low), make your case in the comments.  If your reasoning is sound, I’ll adjust the score.

Scoring Methodology

I made predictions on four distinct topics. To rate my predictions’ overall accuracy on a scale of 0 to 100, I’ll rate the predictions for each topic on a 0 to 25, with 0 points if I was completely off-base, and 25 if I was completely dead-on accurate.

So, without further ado, let’s see how I did: Continue reading →